Anyone who’s tried to send money abroad or plan a trip across the Atlantic already knows the euro-dollar exchange rate can feel like a moving target. Right now, one euro buys about 1.14 US dollars, according to the European Central Bank’s latest reference rate, but the rate you see online isn’t always the rate you get — and that difference can cost you.

4 related posts

Current EUR/USD Mid-Market Rate: 1 EUR = 1.1442 USD ·
1 USD in EUR: 1 USD = 0.8740 EUR ·
Year-over-Year Change (ECB): -0.3% (as of 17 July 2026) ·
Bloomberg Quote: 1.14 USD per EUR (4:59 PM EDT)

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
3Timeline signal
  • ECB last updated reference rate on 17 July 2026 at 1.1435 (European Central Bank (daily rate update))
4What’s next

Four key data points, one pattern: the official ECB rate and the mid-market rate are close, but consumer rates often include a hidden markup.

Metric Value Source
Current Rate 1.1442 ECB (official reference rate)
Inverse (1 USD in EUR) 0.8740 ECB (official rate)
Year Change -0.3% European Central Bank (year-over-year comparison)
ECB Currency Converter 1.1456 ECB Data Portal (live converter)
Trading Economics 1.1440 Trading Economics (market data provider)
Bloomberg Quote 1.14 USD per EUR Bloomberg (financial data terminal)

Is the euro getting stronger against the US dollar?

Recent trends in EUR/USD

  • Current EUR/USD rate is around 1.14 (Trading Economics (real-time rate))
  • Euro has weakened slightly year-over-year: -0.3% since July 2025 (European Central Bank (annual change data))
  • Earlier in 2026, the pair traded near 1.17 (Capital.com (forex analysis platform))

How to measure currency strength

Currency strength isn’t just a single number. The DXY tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, including the euro. When the DXY rises, the dollar strengthens relative to the basket. The euro’s weight in the DXY is about 57.6%, so EUR/USD movements heavily influence the index.

Comparison with other major currencies

Versus the Japanese yen and British pound, the dollar has shown different patterns. The euro’s year-over-year decline of 0.3% against the dollar is modest compared to the yen’s sharper moves. The FXStreet (currency comparative analysis) notes that the euro’s relative stability reflects the ECB’s cautious stance.

The trade-off

A weaker euro helps European exporters but raises import costs for US consumers. For anyone converting dollars to euros, the 0.3% annual drop means you get slightly less purchasing power than a year ago.

The implication: the euro is not getting stronger — it’s holding roughly steady, with a slight softening that is within normal trading ranges.

Key takeaway: The euro is roughly flat, so travelers and investors should not expect a major shift in purchasing power in the near term.

Is the euro to dollar exchange rate good right now?

What makes an exchange rate good?

  • Mid-market rate is 1.1442 (Xe (mid-market rate provider))
  • Consumer rates often include 2–4% markup (Cambridge Currencies (advisory on retail spreads))
  • Timing of exchange matters: rates fluctuate intraday

How to get the best rate

Compare the mid-market rate with the offer rate from your bank or money transfer service. The spread between the two is your cost. For example, at a mid-market rate of 1.1442, a bank offering 1.12 is charging you about 2.1% in hidden fees.

Impact of mid-market vs retail rates

Using the ECB Data Portal (official converter), €100 converts to $114.56 at the official rate. But a retail counter might give you only $111.00 — a difference of $3.56, or 3.1% of your money.

The catch

The “rate” advertised online is almost always the mid-market rate, not the rate you’ll receive. Always check the final amount before confirming a transfer.

What this means: the exchange rate is “good” only if you can access the mid-market rate. For most consumers, the real rate is worse than the headline number.

Key takeaway: Consumers should compare the mid-market rate to the offered rate and calculate the total amount received, not just the headline rate.

Why is USD dropping against euro?

Economic factors affecting USD

  • USD has weakened due to interest rate differentials: the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% while the ECB raised to 2.25% (Cambridge Currencies (policy rate comparison))
  • Market sentiment shifted as inflation data in the US softened

Eurozone monetary policy

The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points on 11 June 2026, a move that was almost fully priced in by money markets (Nex-Wire (ECB meeting coverage)). A Bloomberg survey of economists expected additional quarter-point hikes in September 2026.

Recent geopolitical events

Trade tensions and energy price fluctuations have contributed to volatility. The ECB stated it does not target the exchange rate, but its policy decisions indirectly affect the euro’s value (FXStreet (ECB policy stance)).

The pattern: the narrowing interest rate gap between the US and the eurozone is reducing the dollar’s yield advantage, leading to a softer dollar.

Key takeaway: The narrowing interest rate differential between the Fed and ECB is the main driver of the dollar’s recent weakness against the euro.

What is the prediction for the euro to USD?

Short-term forecast

  • Cambridge Currencies sees a three-month base case of 1.13–1.15 (Cambridge Currencies (forex advisory firm))
  • ExchangeRates.org.uk projects 1.1680 for the near term (ExchangeRates.org.uk (forecast aggregator))

Medium-term outlook

ExchangeRates.org.uk forecasts EUR/USD at 1.1782 for Q3 2026, 1.1957 for Q4 2026, and 1.2002 for Q1 2027 (ExchangeRates.org.uk (quarterly projections)). However, these are medium-confidence estimates from a Tier 3 source.

Analyst consensus

FXStreet’s 2025 forecast noted that the macro backdrop favored the dollar over the euro, with a potential return to parity under bearish scenarios (FXStreet (currency analyst consensus)). The range of outcomes is wide: from 1.03 to 1.17.

The upshot

No single forecast is reliable. The ECB does not provide rate predictions, and market analysts are split. For a traveler or investor, the prudent move is to expect volatility and avoid timing the market.

The implication: predictions range from 1.10 to 1.22 by mid-2027, but the uncertainty is high. Base your decisions on current rates and fees, not on a forecast.

Key takeaway: Forecasts vary widely; travelers and investors should not rely on predictions but instead focus on current rates and fees.

How much is $100 US in euros today?

Using mid-market rate

  • At 1.1442, $100 USD = 87.40 EUR (Xe (mid-market rate calculator))
  • Using the ECB converter: 100 USD = 87.30 EUR (ECB Data Portal (official converter))

Using a currency converter

Online tools like Xe or Google show the mid-market rate. But when you actually exchange money, the rate you get will be different. Banks and airports typically add a margin of 2–5%.

Getting the actual amount with fees

For example, a bank might offer 0.85 EUR per USD, meaning $100 gets you €85. That’s 2.74% less than the mid-market rate. Over a €1,000 transfer, the difference is about €27.

Why this matters: the real cost of converting $100 is not just the rate — it’s the spread. Always compute the total amount you’ll receive, not just the headline rate.

Key takeaway: When converting $100, the actual euros received can be 2–5% less than the mid-market rate, so always check the final amount.

Timeline signal

  • 17 July 2025: ECB reference rate: 1 EUR = 1.1469 USD (estimated from -0.3% change) (European Central Bank (historical rate data))
  • 31 May 2026: EUR/USD at 1.165, heading for 0.8% monthly loss (Nex-Wire (market report))
  • 11 June 2026: ECB raises deposit rate to 2.25% (Cambridge Currencies (ECB decision))
  • 17 July 2026: ECB reference rate: 1 EUR = 1.1435 USD (European Central Bank (latest update))

The pattern: the euro has weakened slightly over the past year, with the ECB’s rate hike in June 2026 narrowing the gap with the Fed.

Confirmed facts vs. What’s unclear

Confirmed facts

What’s unclear

  • Future movements depend on central bank policies and economic data (FXStreet (currency market analysis))
  • Short-term forecast is uncertain; analysts diverge on direction (Cambridge Currencies (forex advisory firm))
  • Whether the ECB will continue hiking past September 2026 is not certain (Nex-Wire (market speculation))
  • ECB sets a reference rate daily at 16:00 CET (European Central Bank (methodology))

Analysts agree that the current rate is clear, but the direction of future moves depends on central bank decisions and economic data.

The ECB monitors the euro but does not target the exchange rate. Its primary mandate is price stability, which indirectly influences the currency.

— FXStreet (currency analysis desk)

Our base case for EUR/USD over the next three months is 1.13–1.15, with a wider range of 1.12–1.17 depending on policy surprises.

— Cambridge Currencies (forex advisory team)

For anyone holding dollars or euros, the choice is clear: if you need to convert currency in the next few weeks, use the current mid-market rate and a low-fee service. Trying to wait for a better rate is a gamble — the range of possible outcomes is too wide to predict with confidence. For investors and travelers in the US, the euro’s slight weakness means now is a relatively good time to buy euros, but the saving is small against the spread charged by banks.

Related reading: Is Poland in the EU? Membership, Currency & Schengen · Setting Up a Company in Ireland: Costs, Steps, Tax & Rules

Additional sources

commons.wikimedia.org, exchangerates.org.uk, nex-wire.com, tradingkey.com

For a detailed breakdown of the latest figures from the other side of the pair, check the US dollar to euro rate today.

Don't miss these

Frequently asked questions

How often does the EUR/USD rate change?

It changes continuously during market hours, 24 hours a day on weekdays. The ECB posts a fixed reference rate once per day at around 16:00 CET.

What is the difference between mid-market and retail rate?

The mid-market rate is the wholesale rate between banks. Retail rates include a markup for the service provider, typically 1–5%.

Can I lock in an exchange rate?

Yes, some banks and brokers offer forward contracts or limit orders that lock a rate for a future date. This is common for large transfers.

What factors influence the euro-dollar exchange rate?

Interest rate differentials, inflation data, GDP growth, geopolitical events, and market sentiment all play a role. The ECB and Fed decisions are the biggest drivers.

Is it better to exchange euros to dollars now or later?

If you need the money soon, exchange now. If you can wait, no one can predict the rate with certainty. Dollar-cost averaging (exchanging in chunks) reduces timing risk.

How do I convert euros to dollars without fees?

Use a service that offers the mid-market rate and charges no commission, such as Wise or Revolut. Even then, check the exact rate offered.

What is the historical highest EUR/USD rate?

The euro reached an all-time high of about 1.60 USD in July 2008, during the financial crisis. The lowest was around 0.83 in October 2000.